Elon Musk has lengthy been open about his goals of utilizing SpaceX to unfold humanity’s presence additional into the photo voltaic system. And final weekend, he gave an up to date define of his imaginative and prescient for the way the corporate’s rockets may allow the colonization of Mars.

The serial entrepreneur has been clear for plenty of years that the principle motivation for founding SpaceX was to make people a multiplanetary species. For a very long time, that appeared just like the sort of aspirational aim one may set to encourage and encourage engineers quite than one with a sensible likelihood of coming to fruition.

However following the profitable launch of the corporate’s mammoth Starship car final month, the concept is starting to look much less far-fetched. And in a speech on the firm’s amenities in South Texas, Musk defined how he envisions utilizing Starship to ship hundreds of thousands of tons of cargo to Mars over the subsequent couple of a long time to create a self-sustaining civilization.

“Starship is the primary design of a rocket that’s truly able to making life multiplanetary,” Musk mentioned. “No rocket earlier than this has had the potential to increase life to a different planet.”

In a barely rambling opening to the speech, Musk defined that making people multiplanetary could possibly be a vital insurance coverage coverage in case something catastrophic occurs to Earth. The crimson planet is the obvious alternative, he mentioned, because it’s neither too shut nor too removed from Earth and has most of the uncooked elements required to help a functioning settlement.

However he estimates it can require us to ship a number of million tons of cargo to the floor to get that civilization up and working. Starship is central to these plans, and Musk outlined the corporate’s roadmap for the large rocket over the approaching years.

Key to the imaginative and prescient is making the car totally reusable. Meaning the primary hurdle is proving SpaceX can land and reuse each the Tremendous Heavy first stage rocket and the Starship spacecraft itself. The second of these challenges will probably be harder, because the car should survive reentry to the ambiance—in the newest take a look at, it broke up on its manner again to Earth.

Musk says they plan to show the power to land and reuse the Tremendous Heavy booster this 12 months, which he thinks has an 80 to 90 p.c likelihood of success. Assuming they will get Starship to outlive the intense warmth of reentry, they’re additionally going to try touchdown the car on a mock launch pad out at sea in 2024, with the goal of having the ability to land and reuse it by subsequent 12 months.

Proving the rocket works and is reusable is simply the very first step in Musk’s Mars ambitions although. To attain his aim of delivering one million individuals to the crimson planet within the subsequent 20 years, SpaceX must massively ramp up its manufacturing and launch capabilities.

The corporate is at the moment constructing a second launch tower at its base in South Texas and can also be planning to construct two extra at Cape Canaveral in Florida. Musk mentioned the Texas websites can be largely used for take a look at launches and improvement work, with the Florida ones being the principle hub for launches as soon as Starship begins business operations.

SpaceX plans to construct six Starships this 12 months, based on Musk, however it’s also constructing what he referred to as a “big manufacturing unit” that may allow it to massively ramp up manufacturing of the spacecraft. The long-term aim is to provide a number of Starships a day. That’s essential, based on Musk, as a result of Starships initially gained’t return from Mars and can as a substitute be used as uncooked supplies to assemble constructions on the floor.

The corporate additionally plans to proceed improvement of Starship, boosting its carrying capability from round 100 tons right this moment to 200 tons sooner or later and enabling it to finish a number of launches in a day. SpaceX additionally hopes to show ship-to-ship refueling in orbit subsequent 12 months. It is going to be essential to replenish the gas used up by Starship on launch so it has a full tank because it units off for Mars.

These missions will depart when the orbits of Earth and Mars deliver them shut collectively, an alignment that solely occurs each 26 months. As such, Musk envisions complete armadas of Starships setting off collectively at any time when these home windows arrive.

SpaceX has completed some early work on what must occur as soon as Starships arrive on the crimson planet. They’ve recognized promising touchdown websites and the infrastructure that may want establishing, together with energy era, ice-mining amenities, propellant factories, and communication networks. However Musk admits they’ve but to begin improvement of any of those.

One obvious omission within the discuss was any element on who’s going to be paying for all of this. Whereas the aim of creating humankind multiplanetary is a noble one, it’s removed from clear how the endeavor would become profitable for individuals who put up the funds to make it attainable.

Musk estimates that the price of every launch may finally fall to only $2 to $3 million. And he famous that earnings from the corporate’s Starlink satellites and Falcon 9 launch car are at the moment paying for Starship’s improvement. However these income streams are unlikely to cowl the hundreds of launches a 12 months required to make his Mars goals a actuality.

Nonetheless, the actual fact that the questions nowadays are extra about economics than technical feasibility is testomony to the fast progress SpaceX has made. The dream of turning into a multiplanetary species is probably not science fiction for for much longer.

Picture Credit score: SpaceX